Ann: Redflow progressing multiple commercial opportunities, page-4

To me, this announcement can be taken in a few ways.

First: it smacks of "throw the shareholders a bone to encourage them to send us money". There's nothing really concrete in it - just possibilities that may, or may not, progress to actual orders. About 57 MWh was the figure I came up with (4+7+~3+1.2+.4+8+33+.2+.2+.2 = 57.2) if all the possibilities go ahead as described. Which isn't bad, exactly, but it's kinda underwhelming given that Thailand is supposed to be 80 MWh/year, IIRC.

Second: how it can be taken might be a positive (wow! 57 MWh of orders with prospects of a further 155 MWh if they're successful, plus another unknown quantity for the 'large global renewable developer'), or a negative (you mean they haven't signed the contracts yet?!) There's one 200 kWh project that has been signed, and 1.2 MWh with "verbal confirmation". So that's a touch over 55 MWh of prospects, and no real clarity around what is reasonably likely to proceed out of those prospects (assuming that the verbal confirmation turns into pen on paper, which in fairness is more likely than not.)

It's... somewhat encouraging, but it's still not what I'd call solid. Not to the level that I'd pull out the chequebook and take up my entire entitlement. If this is the strongest they have to offer, it doesn't speak particularly well of the company's position, IMO - it's too much of the same we've seen for too long. And the timing, along with the extension, says to me that I'm not the only one responding like this.