It's confusing but it's not possible to work out how much these shares are worth until you know the price they pay for them, which is not set yet. And it also depends on the current price of the shares at the time they buy them (which may have gone up or down since the VWAP price they are using).
If they pay $5m for $5.3m worth of shares:
Right now, at the initial premium price of 0.12, this means they get 44.2m shares, which at current price is worth $2.74m (so they've lost ~45%)
Say the VWAP purchase price ends up exactly the same as the price when they exercise (say, 0.1), they get 54.4m shares (incl. the 2.5% discount). If the price hasn't changed since the purchase price, they will be worth $5.43m and they've only paid $5m (so they've made 9%)
But, if the price had gone up since then and was now .12, then the shares they paid $5m for are now worth $6.52m, so they've made 30%
So as far as I can work out, if at any point the price rises over 4 weeks then they can exercise and have made a killing. If it stays steady they've made 9%. If it drops they've lost. But as they can choose exactly when to exercise their purchase, they can choose a point when the price has been low, then risen steeply over the next 20 days. Hard to see how they could get this wrong.
(20min delay)