Can someone explain tome where my calculations have gone wrong, because I can't reconcileRedflow's manfacturing timeframes with their stated productioncapacity ramp up and output.
From the 1HFY22presentation slide 8... they state “Targeting 20 MWh pa by June2024 and 40 MWh pa by September 2024.” Also, full productionrestarted from February this year. Assuming full ramp up is achievedat the end of the stated period, then the MAXIMUMachievable production will be:
1Q24 (2month from Feb1 at max 5 MWhr/qtr) = say 4 MWh
2Q24 Max 5MWh
3Q24 Max 10MWh
4Q24 10MWh
1H25 20MWh (assumingmax output remains at 40 MWh pa)
So maximum achievableoutput from Feb 1, 2024 to June 30, 2025 = 49 MWh. Lets say theybreak the bank and do 60 MWh.
But slide 11 of today'sstrategy update states they have about 100 MWh demand from“Backorder” and “ Moving to Close” orders.... ie enough workto last into 2026 at the above rate and no spare capacity toaccomodate new order opportunities, ie the 73 MWh of new prospectsover the next 12 months (also slide 11). Yet slide 15 states “Filledproduction capacity out to early 2025 withcustomer orders” or over the next 12 months only!
It appears to me that they may be overlyoptimistic on exceeding the stated ramp up rates.
Any thoughts?
