Today, about 40% of AGO trades are at 4.25c, that means that...

Today, about 40% of AGO trades are at 4.25c, that means that speculators are expecting an extension to the offer and rise in value to at least 4.3c. So, hold on and watch.
I do not expect any better offer from FMG.
The market believes that FMG is overvalued and a down slide is factored in the options price.
I give you a real example (not a b/s speculation).
Sold today $3.20 put options at 10c, expiry 27 June 2019.
This means that the probability that SP falls below $3.20 next June is real and some traders are hedging their positions at this level.
Sold today $4.2o put option at 21c, expiry 25 October 2018.
The SP would have to fall below $4.00 to generate a net loss for my trade.
I am taking risk with these sales, the market is driven by informed people ( smart speculators) and they expect bad news in the annual report. As far as I know FMG has not progressed with EPA regarding Eliwana mine approval, and I am registered with EPA to receive progress reports of all mine approvals in WA.
Regarding my risks, I have quite complex option network and a black swan event is half covered so all uprampers do not expect that a loss is looming for me.