At first glance, id agree.... and that is the concern that is chiefly weighing on Regis at present. I briefly touched on it in another post
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/regis-fy2025-outlook.8100312/?post_id=74783565Starting with Tropicana, Regis share of reserves is 700,000 oz and producing 130kpa. and more being proven up all the time. I don't have concern with that part of the portfolio. Duketon reserves are the problem.
I think Regis have been pinning growth hopes on McP the last few years and have gotten lazy with increasing reserves at Duketon. As it stands now DNO is essentially finished as of end of last quarter. and we will be left with Duketon south. We have almost 2Moz of resources. I am not a geologist but do have some on the ground mining experience, and also keeping in mind the gold price assumptions and grade cut off for reserves, while nothing is 100% I do think Regis will be able to grow reserves at Duketon for some time.
Regis share price has been punished for this laziness, and you can see it now in their about face with pushing new undergrounds at Duketon. I suspect it was always an option, but McP was the medium term focus and didnt want to chase too many birds at once.
With McP now largely on hold for the next year or so at least, the focus is shifting back to Duketon
(where it never should have been outright abandoned). Once the market begins to have confidence that Regis can not only grow resources, but convert those resources into reserves by doing some mining design, it will have its well overdue re-rate.
Even discounting all of the above, RRL still has the largest sensitivity to gold prices out of the sector.
RRL is not without risk and things can still go pear shaped as with anything, but there is a lot of opportunity here in a beaten down
(some justifited) company in a bullish gold sector.
(20min delay)