Ann: REH - ASX Announcement Equity Raise, page-13

"I wonder how much of that 9% growth was purely a result of the US economy powering up towards the summit on the back of their cash rate heading back to zero and wall streets puppet trying to take them to the moon with no return rocket fuel. How much of it was systematic growth at the tail end of the longest boom in US history? Who knows, but it was not all Reece's handy work I suspect."

Who knows, you ask?
I believe I do.

Independent channel checks I personally conducted over the course of 2019 indicated quite clearly that the value of plumbing supplies in the states in which Moresco operates did not grow by anywhere near 9%. Ergo, Moresco increased its share of the market.


"Your calculations above are really interesting and insightful and help to put this capital raise into perspective for retail holders."

You call it "interesting and insightful" ....what it is really does is it calls you out for posting pure and unbridled BS (quote: "Now we, the real shareholders, will pay"), that you evidently pulled out of your behind without even the remotest thought.

You are a shareholder in a company, which does a capital raising, and you don't even properly establish what impact it has on your personal financial position? Instead you complain online that it is a bad thing...

Pretty laughable, really

Do you not feel in the least embarrassed by that?

Most would scramble to delete their posts that were show to contain such elements of hypocrisy (or incompetence, if that's what it was).



However, noting you were "decidedly circumspect" at the time of the Morsco acquisition and the share price hovered around $12.50 for four months or so post the acquisition. How does your scenario look if shareholders sold/reduced the 3,500 at $12.50 and re-purchased recently at $8-9. Miles better off no doubt and way ahead of the index."

That presupposes that people know how to sell at peaks in share prices based on the timing of economic cycles.

Which is your perennial thesis for investing, yet you are unable to cite examples of anyone who has been able to do so on a sustainable basis.


"I know I am being a pain in the backside and foolishly gloating, but it does demonstrate the importance of sell discipline for value investors who also consider systematic risk in their risk profile."

You're not really gloating.
People gloat when they get things right for the right reason.

You got it "right" because a global pandemic broke out.
The stock was near $12.00 and rising just a few weeks ago.

Incorporating the timing of pandemics into sell discipline is something only for those with extraordinary powers of clairvoyance.

Anyone can look back at share price charts and boldly claim that one should have sold at the peak and bought at the trough.


"For example what happened to reeces free cash flow from 08 to 14?"

This information is readily available in the public domain.
(Why you didn't incur the minimal amount of effort required to obtain that information from the published financial accounts, instead of calling upon someone else to provide it for you, is for reasons known only to you.)

No matter: For your edification, the chart below tracks REH's cash flows over an 18-year period (which is the duration of my financial model) which includes that 2008 to 2014 period which you referenced.
(To discern any cyclicality of the cash flows, I've based the data series to 100 at the starting year.)

You tell me: what happened to Reece's cash flows between 2008 and 2014?



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