The initial Aje development won't costa great deal. If you look at APY, they have forecast $190m to get their Gazelle gas project to development. This involves 2 new wells and a recompletion of one of the others. This also involves a pipeline to the coast for processing onshore.
Aje will cost a lot less, as they only need 1 new well and a recompletion and they won't be piping anything to shore, being as they have already started to talk about a leased FPSO which won't be capex but will be opex. (some may be capex in terms of logistics to bring to the field location etc).
I would think somewhere around $100m but I expect the JV to be negotiating a larger facility as Stage 2 is drilling additional wells into the field, so I would think they could ramp up production steadily once its producing and fund this partly from cashflow and partly from the facility.
With the way Nigerian banks are throwing money at smaller operators in Nigeria I see there to be no real issue with obtaining the funding especially considering who our partners are in Nigeria, its just a matter of time. I don't think this wil take too long and will likely be announced shortly after they reach FID for the first stage development.
In terms of funding, I'm more concerned for JKA's ability to finance both the new Hammermet West sidetrack and also a likely appraisal / exploration well to be drilled on Aje (touted as later this year). I expect this will cost in the region of $50m gross (possibly a bit more) which would cost around $2.5m.
If (and its a big if) they drill the new sidetrack for $35m, this is net to JKA of $5.25m, but as psi81 has said, maybe closer to $7.5m with contingency, then there really isn't a lot of wiggle room on the 2 wells, if you set aside $10m of their cash for these 2.
If they could sell 5% of the Hammermet block (alongside COE's divestment - assuming they do this before the sidetrack but not sure where they sit on this now), then I doubt they will get more than $2 / barrel, which would maybe bring in a carry of $4m which would pretty much be a free carry being as they would then only need to pay 10% or around $5m.
I see this being an option and would probably be the best option and should help to re-rate the share price once we get rid of those who just want rid of their JKA shares at whatever price is available.
JKA Price at posting:
5.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
