Key take-outs for me:
1) The ASX are clearly very keen to 'police' the extent to which an announcement drives the SP upwards - it wants to ensure that if that happens the ann was clear and accurate, and can justify any exuberance - otherwise it wants the company to significantly modify its tone and content
This is entirely fair given the massive SP charges that took place on 1PG, BIG, GSW and others - on what later appear to be shameless hype - but lets face it, every announcement contains a degree of hype - so its a case of drawing a line in the sand
BUD saw a 24% increase in SP after the Nestle ann - BUD see this as an endorsement of the Ohm system and indicative of what's to come - ASX are probing as to whether Nestle could ever install enough Ohm itself to justify the exuberance - personally I think Nestle as a client is symbolic not directly leading to large $ from Nestle
2) The big overriding issue behind all of the questions is the phasing of the BUD business - basically falling into 3 key phases;
- partnership agreement with reseller / distributor
- trials with clients
- pay flow
Clearly there are numerous processes and delays that have to be worked through until cash starts rolling in - we are talking months to get though all this - so when does the clock start ticking? and when does the cash hit the business?
For me, in broad terms, the clock started ticking around Feb of this year - I'm allowing a 5 month rolling delay from thereafter - meaning decent revenue flow to be expected in July quarterly - and hopefully steadily increasing thereafter from additional installs
July is the fist key data point - then each quarter thereafter - 3 quarters = 3 data points - and there's your graph of revenue projection
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