The EV to resource is very low and so a well capitalised and experienced project developer willing to bear PNG country risk could pick this asset up cheaply while still paying a hefty premium to the current share price. This is especially so if the resource grows meaningfully (although I doubt ANY shareholder thought there was only 1.6m oz resources / 1m oz reserves in the ML and ELs given the presentations have always highlighted the pits were constrained by drilling data not economics).
Risks I see are:
1) I wouldn't rule out a small capital raise PRIOR to any development raise -
- Post April the better part of $5m of "non-recurring" payables and contractual close out costs were incurred in May so cash will be sub $23m as of today given the drilling programme, corporate costs and continuing community relocation programme costs;
- The community relocation programme is ongoing with no update as its status provided in the presentation. Pg 13 of the presentation though suggests will continue through the remainder of the CY. How many $$$s does this represent?
- The drilling programme will continue to deliver the resource update;
- While likely not huge the company will need to fund the re-evaluation and optimisation studies and the resource update as well as the not immaterial costs of a strategic review.
Will c$40m ($23m cash post May + $17m of equipment that might be able to be liquidated) be sufficient?
It may just be an oversight but I note that neither the presentation nor the announcement categorically state that they are fully funded to deliver the resource update (just that "the company remains well-funded"). My experience with pre-development companies is it is just as important what is not said as what is said...
2) While the company has successfully extended by a year the time limit for building the project (until mid 2024) they haven't yet extended the ML expiry term (mid 2034). Without confidence on this any bidder is going to be heavily discounting any cashflows beyond this date or have to factor in a potentially oversized plant and mining fleet to complete processing of the resource prior to the ML expiry.
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