yeah right, so you agree with your own drivel, except u have no...

First 20 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
retorn123

1,578 Posts.

300

21/09/22

16:40

Post #: 63820404
Share

Originally posted by James7821: ↑

Yes good point. I think I hit the nail on the head in my previous recent posts on CE1. I was a big believer in the company and its assets and had a buy rating on it at that time as well. However my view changed (and I posted my revised view on HC on the day it changed) when I saw the latest set of qtr results which revealed what I thought were terrible decline rates on their newer wells. I couldn't back calculate any of their guidance estimates and budget forecasts and come up with an explanation other than decline rates being approx double what I previously thought they were. When you adjust for this the current market cap makes sense, so too the heavy capex requirement to maintain existing production.

The oil price should be too much weight on it, look at other ASX peers. The WCS diff would be a problem however, as tracked by TXOE. The point about Montney I doubt as well. The bounce from announcing monetising it was minimal. I don't think it's captured much in the market cap - the market hates binary outcomes and with current balance sheet strength (lack thereof) Montney remains a binary outcome. It's either worth a lot or nothing right now.

If suddenly SPR draw stops, WTI goes back to $100 and WCS diff falls to $13 - then sure I expect a drift 20c, but not more than that given some new clues around the quality of assets. It would take Montney to go beyond that.

Just my opinions.

Expand

yeah right, so you agree with your own drivel, except u have no idea what you're talking about

all the decline rates are publicly available, and not consistent with your drivel

CE1 Price at posting: 13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

BIO

Biome unveils three year revenue target up to $85M – but are 3Y targets enough to excite?

AZL

Brine and shine: Arizona Lithium wins early stage eco approval to commence wellpad #2 at Prairie

BOE

$550 million Jabiluka uranium offer comes unstuck as Government rules lease won't be renewed

PAM

PAM secures high-grade Chilean copper play in strong territory

IVZ

Invictus banks US$5M from Zimbabwean investment fund in support of Cabora Bassa

There are more pages in this discussion • 84 more messages in this thread...

First 20 Last

Add CE1 (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 0.9¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $5.700M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

yeah right, so you agree with your own drivel, except u have no...

Biome unveils three year revenue target up to $85M – but are 3Y targets enough to excite?

Brine and shine: Arizona Lithium wins early stage eco approval to commence wellpad #2 at Prairie

$550 million Jabiluka uranium offer comes unstuck as Government rules lease won't be renewed

PAM secures high-grade Chilean copper play in strong territory

Invictus banks US$5M from Zimbabwean investment fund in support of Cabora Bassa

Featured News

Featured News

yeah right, so you agree with your own drivel, except u have no...

Top Stories

Biome unveils three year revenue target up to $85M – but are 3Y targets enough to excite?

Brine and shine: Arizona Lithium wins early stage eco approval to commence wellpad #2 at Prairie

$550 million Jabiluka uranium offer comes unstuck as Government rules lease won't be renewed

PAM secures high-grade Chilean copper play in strong territory

Invictus banks US$5M from Zimbabwean investment fund in support of Cabora Bassa

Featured News

Featured News