MRQ 0.00% 0.4¢ mrg metals limited

TA is great, big fan myself especially in the speculation stages...

  1. 2ic
    5,941 Posts.
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    TA is great, big fan myself especially in the speculation stages of project excitement when reality is trumped by potential.

    Do yourselves a favour and zoom into a google map of the Corridor prospects and see just how much of the target areas are covered in +100,000 people towns and cities. Only areas sufficiently removed from large population centres will be available to mining which substantially reduces reserve potential. There is a reason that these prospects drilled 20 years ago were let go and only Corridor 1 was progressed. There is a reason that Corridor 1 resource area is only a small part of the large topographical dunal high encompassed by the tenement, a +200,000 city called Chibuto.

    There is no doubt large resources of HM in the dunal highs south of the Limpopo, as evidenced by drilling in 2000. There is no doubt that future drilling will produce large JORC resources. Anyone who thinks others in the market will be surprised and impressed when drilling proves what Blind Freddy can already see is delusional. The market is forward looking and the resource potential is obvious to everyone.

    If you are playing in junior stocks you should know this chart already, the life cycle of a junior explorer share price.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1913/1913717-5bb70ecdacc490f922a1ab5b060e2fb2.jpg

    You have been in the speculation stage and done very well getting in at 0.5c for a 250% gain. Trouble is the speculation stage for obvious and already identified large deposits is very short. A lot more drilling is required but none of it will change the markets expectations of large resource unfortunately mostly under large cities/towns. Company biased Scoping Study this year, more drilling and a PFS perhaps by the end of 2021, a lot more work again for a DFS over 2022, maybe 2023. Years for environmental baselines and submissions before agreement on community relocation and mining/environmental permits are issued. You know the drill.

    Meanwhile MRQ currently has circa 2.2B shares on issue fully diluted once all the vendor shares, performance shares and oppies are issued/converted (most by the beginning of 2021). All of those are sitting on between 150% to 250% or more profit at 2.5c (if not free and all profit), are sellers looking to monetise at some point, imo more wanting out than will be wanting in when reality sets in. Selling has begun and will continue with the recent 1c placement clients, then the old holders, then the escrow, then those slow to realise etc. This will end up with well over 3B shares on issue by the time a DFS comes around in high probability.

    What will the PFS etc show? Well, that it's a 300km truck to Maputo City port through heavily populated areas like the Chinese are doing with their tiny Corridor operation (check that out on google maps to btw), if there is any spare port capacity that is. In reality a large and economically efficient operation will need a new port, mega bucks and the project will not stack up. The project will clearly have a low 50% VHM assemblage, majority of that lower value slag feed ilmenite of circa 50% TiO2.

    Better projects, and/or further advanced and in less risky jurisdictions. A lot of feasibility work before the answers are known for facts, but this will end up with much smaller size reserves outside population centres than management are selling, with likely too high a capex for too small a NPV at achievable scale. Just my opinion, wait around three years and through one or two market corrections, more capital raising and potentially the share price back below 1c to find out if you like. Smart money will be selling down for great profits into the volume of early excitement before that volume dissapears

    Good luck

 
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