On these figures the maximum gross MBN COP based on Q2 4.49 COP is now
COP 3.10
NP 3.91
margin gross +$0.81uslb = 20.7%
But I think its way lower than this as this doesn't include the 33% staff cuts of US$62Mpa since August nor the latest staff cuts of maybe another 17%, the stockpile usage at 2.05uslb of 15,000T (likely now at 20,000T) ni conc plus the admin savings for the board costs and auditors/accountants (they don't issue financials of Q3 Q4 Q1 H1 accounts at all now).
On my maths I thins right now the COP is at 2.50-2.90 now
with margins close to +$1.00-$1.40uslb right now.
There is no other way cash at bank could increase from August to Feb 2016 otherwise or the LPM would work unless there is a clear and steady buffer of the COP well lower than the NP by around gross 20% min to 40% maximum.
You cant slash expenses by 31% on the BRL alone since Q2 and then slash another 33-50% in wages and another 50% on stockpile usage and then another 10% on efficiencies and admin savings and then expect your COP to be only 11% lower, try 30-50% lower than Q2 of 4.49uslb.
It has to be. Its basic maths.
Its run like a private company...secrets galore, none made public, the family doesn't want the workers or public to know the margins COP or cashflows or the inventories or unpaid receivables... normally done when its very profitable as otherwise it would be public like dick smith and shuttered in August and liquidated.
The blackmail is - pay US$11M tax refunds or we shutter and sack all staff of 600 permanent and make you lose $200M of your economy. Buy MBN for US$500M instead of SU40M on the ASX in stealth or we collapse the entire regions value from US$5B to US$2B and cause chaos and mass unemployment.
I think they wait for the Rio Olympics and the BRL to 4.50 & NP to 4.50 and think that the stunning margins and cost cutting and new offtake deals & $100M debt for 1B equity swap in full (doubling their shares) will boost the SP. If they swap into more shares it is certain this will relist higher and the VA VR will be discharged but the good wolves will have to respond and bid asap likely already threatened injunctions etc.
The good wolves phrase I coined was as they were buying daily 800K shares and holding the SP up at any price, they didn't care if it was 16c, 12.5c, 10.5c, 8.5c.
The bad wolves was coined as there were net sellers who shafted the OZ 98.5% of holders and took our shares and still screwed this up then closed the shares off from trading and did all these secret things.
The bad wolves are stalling this takeover but imho its checkmate in 5 moves for the good wolves.
If they bid on market at 14c and force disclosure and relisting, we may see a massive recap by the bad wolves as I stated above 1B shares for the $100M debt but if they do that it means they MUST relist and discharge the VA VR as there is no debt.
The bad wolves are snookered and in checkmate denial imho and so they have said baleez we are not playing this game anymore, we are stopping playing for a while. Yet the pieces sit where they are still. When they try to change the rules and the endgame starts as it is now starting, the lawyers and others will come in and that's when we will find out the truth of what I speak.
In the meantime, they think the BRL and NP will save them but it wont. It has saved MBN but not the bad wolves bad current position so they have to change the game rules to protect their shares.
Its all about the shares not the debt.
MBN Price at posting:
8.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
