You've articulated the state of play for a pre-commercial biotech negotiating various regulatory pathways. Or as SI so eloquently and recently put it, the 'registration phase.'
If MSB has proven anything on the negotiation front, it can negotiate and win favourable terms in the boardroom on behalf of shareholders. Your suggestion that partnerships may happen without any further qualification on likelihood doesn't exactly account for the full picture here, though I suppose thats also something I take issue with regarding pretty much all of your contributions.
Partnerships are value accretive. Even if we accept the two year timeframe you've offered, any partnership on phase III products will cater in a significant way for funding additional trials required for registration - so I'm not sure your ideas regarding company expenditure will play out, its hardly a black and white situation.
Partnerships also shift market perception around value of products and veracity of the underpinning science. So, even entertaining a projected investment horizon of two years, coming off a share price base of $2.60, which is relatively low historically, this doesn't seem particularly awful to me. Let me break it down:
- You buy in at $2.60 or better yet, you've averaged in lower already (FYI, before you do this you should close your short)
- You wait
- Partnerships
- SP goes up
- Hold/Sell/Buy more
Surely you've speculated on early stage biotech companies before? Maybe ones with far less working capital, who haven't conducted any clinical trials to date and are also trying to enter new markets? Maybe I'm thinking of a different Doc...
What did Lopez do to you man? Was it that bad?
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