If there was any shot at a deal, it's likely the Chinese would have foot the bill. However, they've been drilling into the North for a steal, probably betting they can wait it out and scoop up all of Manono for stuff-all outlay. And, if they were willing to pay-up to settle the lawsuits and secure the asset, it probably wouldn't have been anywhere near what's being thrown around on these chat forums.
Take First Quantum's mess in the DRC. They invested over 800 mil into their mine, only to have their license revoked by the DRC. They took it to arbitration, hoping for compensation. They felt they had a winning case but knew it would drag on for years with no guarantee of payment in the end. Then, the DRC hands the new mining license to some London-listed outfit. Facing legal hurdles created by First Quantum's actions, this new company eventually offers 1.25 billion to First Quantum to drop their legal cases, First Quantum gladly accepts.
So, First Quantum dumps 800 million into a mine, it was fully operational and employed thousands of people, only to have their ML cancelled. They ended up being happy to walk away from the mess with a 1.25 billion settlement (150% of their original investment). AVZ on the other hand, hasn't even gotten their mine off the ground, and they've only sunk 150 million into the project. If the Chinese were to of thrown us an offer, realistically, how much do you feel it would have been?
Nigel made it clear his preference is for a negotiated outcome, but the only hope of that is if the DRC feels the pressure from these lawsuits and leans on the Chinese to pay up. But let's face it, the DRC has seemed pretty indifferent to the situation to-date. Unfortunately, they just don't seem to care. If the DRC keeps ignoring legal rulings, the Chinese will likely wait it out, keep their hands in their pockets, then just take whatever they want.
Looks like we're in for the long haul with ICSID, it seems to be our only option. That of course is reliant on litigation funding, we're still waiting on that formal agreement with Locke to come through.
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