I may be oversimplifying but I think the pricing movement in Graphite is inevitable. The question is by how much and when over the next 15 months.
Three factors in play:
- unsustainable Chinese synthetic pricing - how long will China get cheap energy, how long will China over produce, how long will suppliers price war before consolidation?
- Chinese EV demand and Chinese graphite supply - Chinese EVs are selling like Bananas. Even if China fails to export these EVs to the west, China and the developing world will gobble them up. How long can Chinese graphite supply keep up before deficit?
- Ex China supply chain security and govt intervention - Graphite Tariffs are already scheduled for 2026, if the above 2 fail, this will move the pricing by 25% regardless. Will the west see these Tariffs through or delay them?
Im sure there will be lots of unforeseen things that pop up, but it looks like its already starting to play out, Asian minerals is only reporting 194 is still dropping in price, where as 195 has been going up in price for the past 12 months and spherical has shown green shoots last month. China is at over 50% EV adoption for new car sales. Developing countries not tied to the west is already seeing assembly factory investment from Chinese EVs.
I think DC is waiting for one of these scenarios to play out. 2025 and 2026 will be interesting for us.
AIMO DYOR
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