''While these authorities seem neither willing nor able to...

''While these authorities seem neither willing nor able to completely forego the benefits of Chinese involvement, there is also noticeable popular resistance and concern. Case in point, while Kauona presented himself in his presidential campaign as welcoming extensive Chinese investment, this campaign was also unequivocally unsuccessful. The 2021 unrest in the nearby Solomon Islands, which was thought to originate at least in part out of local distress over the country’s (re)orientation of diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China, has ostensibly served as a warning sign to Bougainvilleans. Bougainville is therefore likely to take a cautious stance towards allowing Beijing too direct an influence on its economic and political future.''

''In contrast, fears remain — among local and international observers and stakeholders — that Bougainville will struggle to find genuine international political independence. Marape continues to claim that PNG and the ARB have established a timeline for a mutual settlement of the ARB’s status rather than necessarily for Bougainville statehood, and PNG may indeed find Bougainville’s resource abundance an economic asset too valuable to give up. Port Moresby is planning to organise a nationwide consultation about Bougainville independence, essentially delaying the settlement process and brushing off its own decision-making capacity and accountability on the matter.

More importantly, PNG officials have — perhaps not altogether impartially — cautioned that Bougainville does not have sufficient economic and institutional means to steer itself successfully as an independent state.''

9DASHLINE — The Bougainville Autonomous Region: Balancing independence and foreign relations