Purely mathematical, but if you ignore Thursday's surge:
- say the SP was 0.034, with 3.142Bn shares on issue and a MC of $0.106Bn.
- The new shares issued (excluding the options) is 20% of 3.142Bn, so 0.6284Bn.
- Total SOI after the rights issue (assuming full takeup) is 3.7704Bn, with an additional $0.01571Bn MC (theoretical).
- So, post raise, 3.77Bn SOI and MC of $0.1225Bn, which implies a SP of $0.0325
Of course market sentiment doesn't always (or maybe ever??) follow theory... but given it's a rights issue, the weighted average SP for the shareholders would be 3.25c not 2.5c, and part of the reason it hasn't/isn't trending towards the CR price of 2.5c.
Or maybe it's just the expectation of positive drilling results being released imminently....
Ann: Renounceable Rights Issue Prospectus, page-18
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