Yes I agree we need a DCF to value the company properly. It is a pity there is no broker coverage.
Bear in mind the original study assumed an upfront capital cost of $205 million (so 50% is ours) and I would assume more now, so that will probably take at least this year's free cash flow.
My reading of the timing is FID in CY 2023 and then a ramp up of two years with AISC costs of $19-20000, or just below the low end of the current range of $21000. So the real benefit in terms of costs is probably from FY 2025.
At full ramp up production is higher than now and costs are lower at $16500-17500. What tin price is appropriate for 2025 onwards is the big unknown. Hence the importance of a DCF given upfront costs and the real benefit being well down the track. You would clearly test it out against a range of tin prices given the uncertainty. It still looks very profitable given the original study had a DCF (at 8% discount) of $185 million for MLX, at a tin price half the current level.
MLX Price at posting:
37.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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