We have now come to the final countdown of tomorrows announcement by ASX of Winmar’s acquisitions in the Congo. The revelation of the truth by the official statement by the WFE Board will finally bring to light the facts that so many of us here in this HC group have feverishly speculated on all aspects of the acquisition. Having awaited every new HC post with anxiety and hope that some light may shed on acquisition, it has led to a great optimistic build up while at the same time rejecting anyt negative statement by some posters who have attempted to bring a sense of balance and logic to make us question our cult like devotion to Winmar’s potential, its leader, Jason Brewer and its main backer being Airguide. Lets face it, without these two parties , we would not be having this debate and excitement.
This is has been a great and extensive debate about the future of Winmar, with many amazing insights of speculation, research, attempts of sabotage of our confidence in our dreams and even humour. It has exposed that many of us holders are just amateur retail investors at the mercy of the leaders hoping for a windfall of money in order to improve our financial & personal lives in the demanding modern world which we are just slaves to working away to our masters just to exist. We all want to free oursleves and this Winmar announcement could be our salvation to financial freedom. Yes there has been villains, heroes, the dreamers and the naive that all thrown their welcomed thoughts on this forum which has made it entertaining and sometimes frustrating but highly addictive entertainment in the hunt for the cryptic truth.
So whose side of the story do we believe in? The villains and non-believers ( the down rampers who missed out buying it 0.024 or less ) or feverishly faithful who have stacked their hopes, dreams and risking their money on a company that assembled a team that includes a well proven and highly connected leader who has risked his life travelling to dangerous parts of Africa while we sit in the comfort of our chairs here in Oz hoping of instant life changing wealth. Its Winmar’s time now to awake and shine as it has risen from the ashes since 2017 like a fiery phoenix to bring wealth to all its short term holders, whether great of small shares held, with the exception of minority of long term holders like myself who have been here since its early days as an iron ore prospector in WA.
So the announcement tomorrow will bring joy and also frustration. The joy will come in the form of the news that it will become soon within the year the ASX’s only listed cobalt producer that will be a highly profitable operation in a risky jurisdiction of the Congo. Now that will lead to a stampede of investors and funds flooding money into Winmar.
All pointers lead to a Joint venture in the Cobalt heartland of the south east Congo somewhere near Limbashi region and will likely be with a decent sized modern production copper/cobalt plant that will have immediate access to a non-JORC compliant cobalt rich tailings that are not sourced from artisanal mines, but from a major tailings stockpile too tens of millions of tonnes at an historical local average of 0.8-1.2% that has been neglected by the large corporations like Glencore. There will be the possibility that there will be also access to smaller rich local cobalt ore grades of 3%-15% ( in OZ its 0.4-0.8% and we get excited!) that require connections to the Government to be extracted and hence have alluded other Chinese buyers.
The main question unanswered here is how big is this production plant, how many 1000’s of tonnes can it churn out? Is it good working order ? Can the production be expanded? Is there a trained workforce at hand? I would not be concerned too much about the ore as there is plenty of ore to access. The key is the production plant and its capacity to process ore and tailings into a saleable cobalt hydroxide of 30% content so that it can be sold into the eagerly awaiting buyers hands in Korean and China.
The frustration will come in form of my prediction of re-compliance which stated before in my posts means that its likely that all shares cannot be traded for another 8-10 weeks when as the ASX has been difficult in approving WFE’s transition to a cobalt producer. This is a positive in a sense as the current price of cobalt is $US68,000, which is much lower that its highs of $US90,000 per ton in May 2018. This however will be changing with Toronto listed Cobalt 27 cobalt hoarding company predicting a price rise back to higher levels in Sept-Oct 2018. During this time I think the board will also release more positive news about the condition of plant, the tying of mining leases of rich local ore, off-take deals with end buyers and financing of the venture. This why it won’t open at 0.035-0.05 tomorrow, simply because it won’t open for trade due to re-compliance. Yes they will reveal the deal, but you won’t be able to buy or sell until late Sept 2018. This is why the pressure cooker will be placed on open day with the price testing record and jaw dropping levels of 0.065-0.085.
The deal has already likely been done and signed and its been ready to be released back in June 2018. Otherwise there would have not been so many extensions. Its not about the off-takes, finance, ect. Its all about the stubburness of the ASX’s corporate watchdog that is spearhead by government bureaucratic types who simply cant get head around the transformation. In the end don’t curse the ASX as they are cherished safeguard to protect us investors so that we are not duped by misleading facts which is so common in the speculative mining market.
So my humble non-professional advice, is be patient till that day in September that is trades again and keep strong when it does open as it will be a fiery phoenix like opening of epic proportions that will confound many skeptics and markets traders as it becomes a world top ten producers of the rare and desirable cobalt hydroxide which will be essential for the next 5-7 years to power the electric car battery revolution of the millions of EV cars that are being planned to produced by 2025 likes of Tesla ( 1.5m cars per year with 10-12kg cobalt per car), VW group ( 6 million cars) , BMW, Volvo, Mercedes, ect. And yet the production of cobalt is capped around 100,000 tonnes with massive pressure to bring more onto the market could see it rise and sit around $120,000-$150,000 per ton for many years until battery manufacturers desperately find a engineering method to reduce the cobalt content from 6:2:2 ( Nickel, Manganese and Cobalt ratio) to 8:1:1. The problem is that you cannot just ramp up cobalt production as its a by-product from Nickel and Copper mining. To establish a modern copper plant you will need 3-5 years of plant construction and $3-4 Billion. Have a listen to this great radio interview by a cobalt expert which I have provided a link to.
and also
http://palisaderadio.com/mike-beck-the-most-supply-constrained-commodity-on-earth-by-far/
You will then understand the huge potential that Winmar has to become a $Billion+ dollar company in the short term if it can come with the goods and travel unhindered along its tasting path of becoming a top 5-10 world producer of cobalt. Even if it produces only 1000 tons, its still better than speculating in all those companies like Cleanteq ( $1.3 B a few months ago ) who have their low grade stuff in the ground and no production plant for at least another 3- 4 years. So what value can one put on a company that will likely be producing the highly demanded and scarce cobalt into the hungry cash upped hands of battery makers? That depends on how many tonnes of cobalt can be produced and as a rule of thumb each ton produced there is around a $US40,000-$50,000 ton profit based on a cost of around $US25,000 per ton & a market price of $US75,000 per ton.
Those that have a substantial holding or like me are content on their humble small holding, I wish all luck on your bravery and fortune and if you don’t have any wfe shares yet, well there still is a chance to join in this miraculous story that is about to unfold. All I know is that come that day, I will be buying more and not selling one share until early 2019 when the story is fully exposed. This article is my charitable work for today.
I am sorry if I have bored you in my typical long posts and offending the skeptics who are furious with my idealistic views, but I feel I have finally dusted off my conscious and charitably shared with the HC members and investors what I firmly believe in this company and its potential directions. Have a good evening and I hope the news tomorrow is close to my intuitive insight and research for my posting integrity. I will now drift in obscurity for a while as enough has been said by myself.
