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Ann: Request for extension of Voluntary Suspension, page-46

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Wolfanger

19 Posts.

07/02/18

01:01

Post #: 30873067
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Originally posted by 1ronnie ↑

YOJ: makes announcements on MoUs and collaborations that holders want to interpret as material although they never disclose any quantified $

GSW: makes announcements on contract wins intimating their potential volumes and prospects without being able to quantify likely revenue outcomes due to commercial structure of contracts which allow customers to opt out but failed to disclose subsequent termination of contract which they then deemed no longer material

BUD: makes bold forecast of committed revenues of $69m following $23m instos CR when those forecast turn out to be a combination of sales quota on distributor (Digicel) and expectation based on other geographical region. Meaning of "committed revenues" is somewhat misleading leading to interpretation of a meaningful chance of realisation. Sp jumped from 25.5c to 40c following this announcement and subsequent one on inventory order ( which may imply strong demand but not necessarily translate into actual sales as it may well be just anticipated sales).

These disclosures give a more positive view of prospective revenues than it may otherwise be, but BUD has gone one step further to quantify the $. All 3 failed to show any much movements in their 4Cs despite all the bullishness in their announcements. GSW holders also admired Bane Hunter , doesn't make any difference. Whether companies can restore their credibility and possibly trust/ integrity remains to be seen but another two quarters of 4C , if the emperor has no clothes, game over.

You may be right I may be wrong but you hold the stock I don't ., so you have to ask those questions and be open to dissenting views. I am not here to short your stock nor an interest to buy at anytime.

Management needs to be held to account and so often retailers like us who do not understand or wanting to dwell on the entire issue get hurt in the process. This is why i think the ASX has now come down hard on companies announcing contract wins and declaring as material eg K2F went into trading halt after disclosing a material contract win and subsequently made to disclose that the material contract win is in the range of $250-300k over 5 months (perhaps material in the overall scheme of their low revenue base but not material that warrant genuine excitement from investors to buy up to a higher sp). So even if these companies resolve and satisfy ASX, you can expect that future announcements will be closely watched and need to be more iron clad and concrete with quantifiable numbers , to prevent announcements that are motivated by desire to spruik the sp- the elixir for unwarranted exuberance is being removed with consequence for a more muted sp reaction UNLESS they are robust with real translated revenues that you can see in 4C progressively. As per my other post, BUD's 4C revenues have been stuck in the rut over 4 quarters at circa $400k+., growth remains potential in the context of a lofty valuation.

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You actually got the price spike wrong mate. The digicel deal barely shifted it from like 23-27 then stabilising at 25.

Telstra announcement shot it to 28 into early 30s then to 40 the next day. My feeling is that telstra given it's a known name had hype with the local buyers.

So no, I don't believe the share push was from the digicel deal.

BUD Price at posting: 21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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