Ann: Request for Extension of Voluntary Suspension, page-21

the fact they have pushed suspension back to March 2024 is interesting. I think this is say that the directors are convinced that they will remain solvent until at least then. So, where do they think the cash is coming from or not going to?

It's hard to keep up with the maths but I think from the September qrtly:
cash on hand @ 30 September 2023 A$27.0m
+ 20.9kt hmc sold post September qtr @ say A$811/t = A$16.9m
+ further 7.8kt HMC (December) say @ A$811/t = A$6.3m
+ NAIF seemingly tipping in A$15m
=Gross available A$65.2
less cost of operations December qtr ~ A$30m
= Maybe net cash at 31 December 2023 = A$35m

Conceivably then they might get another 30kt HMC away in which case they might end the March qtr at say A$20m. Skinny! The grace of NAIF a true boon. But no capex room; no debt cost or payments; no more credit facilities. No more excuses. If they shift to selling less refined products maybe costs might follow. IMO they have some work to achieve at least operational cash neutrality.

If I accept then that they might have enough cash flow to at least slow the pain, they need to deal with the creditors. I think NAIF has shown its patient hand, so it's the US$ denominated notes that remain the thorn ... around US$60m I think. My sense is that both parties would now want those lenders out post which STA can manage its own operational challenges without the load of a dis-interested lender.

If STA is not looking for a balance sheet or a balance sheet has not been offered (eg ILU,BSE) then I'm still with a desperate sale of all Tanzanian assets in parallel to rectifying that which is apparently not hopelessly broke. To STA's credit, I think its doing enough to suggest it might continue, albeit limp to maybe not look so hopelessly desperate to any prospective buyer ... STA has also bought itself a reasonable due diligence window ...

But like all on this forum, we can only guess.

Have a great day