Assuming the interim accounts have any creditibility a very rough estimate on liquidation.
Net Assets $108.8m - Dec-18
Intangibles ($3.3m)
= Net Tangible Assets =$105.5m
30% discount ($31.7)
Realised Cash $73.8m
Listed shares 63.4m
Potential liquidation payout per share $1.16
30% discount is a very rough estimate to cover the following:
Firesale of PDL's, we already know prices have been dropping (interim presentation)
Lawyers, accountants, auditors & liquidators fees.
Employee entitlements
ATO liabilities
Assumes no material change in asset value from accounting change & no increase in net assets in H2.
I believe this is the sort of ball park figure we may be looking at on liquidation payable starting in approx 12 months time & over 2 years. So a hair cut of more than 50% from the last traded price.
Of course all that could be blown out of the water with the release of the accounts.
On the basis that management have next to zero creditibility I'm assuming that we recover next to nothing if liquidation occurs.
As for an opportunistic takeover bid, I wouldn't bid more than $1.50.
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