As per page 10 of today’s Presentation slides, there are 120 million GP visits per year in Australia.
That equals to an average of 10 million GP visits per month in Australia.
We know that 3.5 million (35%) of that is delivered remotely through Telehealth.
Now let’s try put that into some perspective. But please afford me ample leeway…..
If we assume 30% is the combined Telehealth market share of Coviu and Phenix, we have 1.05 million possible uses of ResAppDx.
If we assume only 30% of those is respiratory related, it’s reduced to 315,000 possible uses of ResAppDx.
If we assume only 40% of those is using iPhone, it’s further reduced to 126,000 possible uses of ResAppDx.
If we assume only 50% of those is willing to pay the $11 test fee, it’s further reduced to 63,000 possible uses of ResAppDx.
At $6 per test, it equates to revenue of $378,000 per month - $4.536 million per annum.
At $8 per test, it equates to revenue of $504,000 per month - $6.048 million per annum.
Currently, RAP’s cash burn is around $6.5 million per annum.
In my opinion, these figures are very conservative and forms my base scenario. From here onwards, there are limited downside with tremendous upside. For example, significantly greater adoption of Telehealth in Australia, permanent Medicare reimbursement of Telehealth and digital diagnostic technology, or more Telehealth contracts in Australia, Europe, UK and Asia. NOTE: I didn’t factor in anything from the US on purpose.
I don’t think I missed anything, but I welcome any criticism or opinions.
