Was going to reply yesterday, but perhaps not a good time. I was worried you weren't in great shape after the fall. It is never easy when the market goes against you, especially in such a big way. I find it always useful to re-visit the reasons why you first invested in a company, and re-examine your investment horizon.
I don't know enough to say with any certainty why the heavy sell-off yesterday, other than to observe that when the snowball gets rolling it takes a lot of nervous retailers with it, especially at the spec end of the market, even more so around Xmas.
It could be, as stated by someone else, that there are some people "in the know" who "know" there are problems with Noveda. I don't subscribe to that. Noveda is as good as joined at the hip to Buddy - CEO has said as much, and they are doing joint presentations at the various trade shows. I guess the only obvious obstacle would be State of NJ pulling the plug, but why would they do that when Noveda is already only one of two partners in the NYSERDA initiative? It's not as if Buddy are hostile or incompetent.
There is no doubt the Zentri blindside has had a detrimental effect on wider market sentiment towards BUD. Delays in getting Noveda across the line haven't helped. I'd say they have exacerbated the situation. But Dave has already said he will provide a full commercial update before Christmas/EOY I hope that comes this week. I suspect he is holding off in the hope - belief - that he will have some good news around the informal sign-off for Noveda while waiting on State of NJ due process.
Previously, I have got myself into serious trouble trusting what CEO's say - wanting to believe instead of applying objective critical analysis to the situation. I think Dave is a different breed, mainly because of his pedigree, but also because of his seed investors and, yes, once again, Rick Borenstein in the Chair.
I agree with Goldbear that some of State's longer term forecasts are open to debate. I don't think those for 2017- 2018 are. If you look at the revenue tables State produced you will see how important Noveda is to Buddy's growth - and strategic land-grab - in the Smart City market vertical. It is no understatement to say they are a vital cog in the flywheel. But I would also suggest the same is true for Noveda, - Buddy are critical to their ongoing growth and success. So yes, the longer this takes to close, so the degree of uncertainty that it will in fact close increases.
Conversely, at this point, given the sell-off, you have to ask yourself what will happen to the SP when it does close? I'd suggest risk-off.
In the meantime, if it's any comfort to you, in the spec-tech end of things, I hold BUD, SYT, CR8 and IAM. Fair to say yesterday was challenging
But it is Christmas, and living where we do - Australia, and for me NZ - we have much to be thankful for, and smile about
Perhaps, as Goldbear also said, it's dribs and drabs time
I know it's easy to say, but take it easy, and always remember you're not alone. There wouldn't a medium/long investor in BUD who isn't underwater right now, and not liking the situation. But Buddy is well-funded and failure is not an option. Time and patience are key, and of course some Christmas cheer.
So best wishes to you and yours, Milo, indeed all of us, including Dave and the team at Buddy, for a great 2017.
