1MC 13.8% 3.3¢ morella corporation limited

Ann: Research Report - BCP Equities-AJM.AX, page-9

  1. 6,296 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 8
    These reports are all understandably cautious so don't always give a good picture of upsides.
    The best table I've seen is the Beer & Co below which shows the variations.
    Pricing tends to work on averages over the previous year rather than where we are today.
    We know that recent forward contracts have been around USD 600+
    Spot prices considerably higher.
    So currently Risked 59c and Unrisked 79c. (adjust down to 56c and 75c for currency)
    More importantly the table shows this is not all about resource.
    It's much more about Pricing and Currency as the effect on the SP is dramatic.
    It's also about have a mine of 2mT which would add substantially.
    Drilling and more resource would also likely add to market perception but would make little difference to How I value it based on a much reduced value after 10 years.

    For the way out valuations we would need Spodumene prices at $10,000/ton (not impossible by the time we are mining) and a 2mT mine. (also not impossible)


    beer.jpg
 
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