Ann: Research Report , page-18

Treasurehunter.


However as ADX is targeting 175 BCF of gas and 44 MMbbl of oil on a P50 basis I would follow that lead to put a rough and ready NPV on the XST worth.

My problem here is that I have North American prices in my tiny head (lol.) but assuming a 15% profit on 10% of this I get about $16m for the gas and about $50m for the oil (IF IT IS THERE). Halve this for the P50 risk factor and NPV stuff (I suppose) and we get maybe $33m of value to the market cap which sort of triples the current market cap .... so the 33c price target is actually not too unreasonable lol. Rough and no doubt erroneous but until we get a results it's all wild guess work anyway.

The true potential here is not the initial play but rather the follow up opportunities ... as starred in the ADX investor presentation. You don't need to do any maths to realise that if any of the first few wells prove commencial the value of 6200sq km of leasehold would get a significant upgrade.

I haven't put my mind back to the resolution nonsense. It is up to the proponents of the resolution to tell us something more than they have wasted everyones' time and also held the SP down for whatever reason.

cheers