Sobeit I dont read in the report or elsewhere the need for ministarial sign off of EIS before CLC agreement can be signed. Could be wrong. The Minister is certainly dragging the chain though.
It's April next week so I don't really see slippage in Relation the CLC process. PB has always said April but recent announcement signaled March. Maybe itll be tomorrow.
Where there is slippage is in the Darwin Refinery EIS process. As i recall all announcements through H2 2017 stated theRefinery EIS would be filed by year end after completion of flow sheets and settling the TIVAN processing components. That has now altered with a different titanium pigment route recently announced. The report, however, now suggests a few more months work before filing. For me it's important to get The Draft as detailed and comprehensive as possible so as to reduce any questions required in any suppliment but there appears to be real slippage on this front.
The report is also, in my mind, silent on substantive progress on the finance front. There doesn't appear to be any new material on this issue. This doesn't mean no progress but what ever is going on behind the scenes hasn't been relayed to the authors of the report for publication. That might be standard but the BOD did indicate a meeting in Frankfurt was to take place after the updated DFS and finalization of flow sheets etc. Would be nice to know if we have moved into the advanced DD stage.
The report still uses the 70% debt 30% equity finance model taking the share from c 850 mill fully paid to 2.4 Bill. That about the same as their November 2017 Report and assumes an SP of 16 or 18 cents. Obviously if the SP hits and maintains say 30 cents or more by June, which it has to do to make exercising the options attractive, then any share dilution for the equity component of finance is altered greatly.
A rough calc would suggest rather that c 1.6 bill shares issuing it would be c 800 mill. That assumes the 70/30 model is correct and if it is then 65% "risked" SP at 1,220 mill MC with at total 1.6 bill shares (rather than the 2.4 Bill speculated in the report) gives a "risked" SP of c 75 cents and a "de risked" value of around $1.00. This all assumes my math is better than my spelling.
Anyways the report is pretty good and just shows how under valued TNG really is even applying the questionable finance model.
Announcement on CLC agreement tommozz please PB. Let's light up this show.
TNG Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
