The price is based on average achieve price historically. Obviously, with the unique situation oil has been in the past 12 months, its going to produce a fairly conservative outcome.
Conceptually I don't think there's anything too surprising in this report that wasn't implied based on economic factors. Clearly the market knows all the information contained in the report, so hasn't made too much of a difference.
What the report does tell me is that ATS has room for growth even with these conservative estimates. For example, the NPV of the PDP volumes at a flat rate of $47.02/bbl is US47.2M. While the below is back of the envelope, a couple of points:
Taking into account exchange, that's below current market cap
The assumption of that price per barrel is very conservative, that should rise this year
Doesn't account for any future volumes (particularly PUD)
So even taking into account a conservative development plan, still significant SP growth opportunities.
What the report is consistent with is the development plan - we know this has slowed and will probably move slowly. The assumption of no drilling in 2021 is something I hope doesn't play out, but it pays for ATS to be conservative now as any increases later will generate buzz within the market.
ATS Price at posting:
5.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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