Good stuff,Sleuthtoo.
Im finding the market reaction to the Reserves Report interesting,if not a tad disappointing.As far as the new reserves figures themselves are concerned Im fairly happy but havent analysed them to any extent.
Its the reaction to the production numbers (where I see a muted reaction to what would have had many of us who watch these numbers almost euphoric at any time in,say ,the last 18 months had we been told(and believed) production of 1400 bopd had increased to 3000 ) a bit disappointing.
Is the market disbelieving the new figure/s,or its sustainability ? If the market is generally accepting the 3000 bopd figure as having a high probability of being sustained then watchers should indeed be pleased,or are we all so battle weary re production numbers we refuse to accept that we might have actually got back on the right road re production?
We got a good price for our first 10%.
3000-5000 bopd is the substantial building block that allows us not to have to,in effect,give back a significant % of that 1st tranche price when settling up ,eventually,for the 2nd tranche.
3000-5000 bopd has a huge affect on the value of the 20% we are retaining.
3000-5000 bopd has a huge affect on our cash flow. Watchers who were CVNers when the SP was over 50c sent it up there because of our cash flow,and zero debt.At one stage we had $70m in the bank,all of it from Thailand.
I consider the 3000 bopd attained production announcement to be the most significant "event" to happen to CVN in the last 2 ,or more,years,provided it transpires to be sustainable (and improvable upon as indicated by the 5000 bopd figure,and an extrapolation of that likely progress out into the future).
Phoenix has grand prospects,but its a punt in anybodys language.CVNs engine room is its shared Thai assets. Its had a fire in the engineroom for quite a while. If it can get its production up to levels that are appropriate to the value of its easily-accessed reserves then we are away on a gig and Phoenix can then be seen for what it is-a lovely,well calculated, punt.Exiting time ahead,methinks,not all of it based on Phoenix.
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