SWF 2.04% 12.5¢ selfwealth limited

People now applauding the departure of the CEO, as if that has...

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    People now applauding the departure of the CEO, as if that has been the thing holding the company back, haven't been paying attention.

    The issue here is that this is a fundamentally flawed business model:

    To be able to compete effectively in an industry with commoditised service offering, where pricing power is absent, requires huge scale; this company doesn't have the required scale, and trying to acquire it was proving to be too costly.

    There's a saying (I suspect it is one of those Buffet-isms) that goes, "When even a good manager comes up against a bad business, the bad business ends up dominating the outcome."

    Replacing one CEO at SWF with another (even one considered to be good) will be to little avail.

    If the SWF board was mature and lucid enough, it would acknowledge that the only path to recovering some of the shareholder value that has been lost over the past two years is to hang a For Sale sign around the company, because it's customer base is worth more in the hands of an industry incumbent than it is as a separate corporate entity.

    Based on my rudimentary assessment, an acquirer could pay an equity value of $54m (22cps) for the business and it would be value-accretive for the acquirer.
    (That figure was around 24cps-25cps when the exercise was conducted some two years ago, but since then the company has consumed around $6m in capital: https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/55154744/single )

    The only thing that saved this company's bacon over the past 12 months was the extraneous factor of rising interest rates, which is clearly unsustainable.  (Ironically, beyond a certain threshold - which has now been surpassed - those interest rates induce a reduction in the cash balances on which SWF generates much of its income.)

    It's an intractable problem, but I suspect that - instead of accepting this and acting accordingly to recover some residual shareholder value - the board, in conjunction with the new CEO, will come up with a "strategic review" and spend another year or two trying to slide uphill.

    .
 
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