I have been trying to formulate an answer to your question, for both yourself, and for my own investment directions.
Unfortunately, the company is in a state of early development, with more infrastructure being brought online into next year, which will significantly add to the company's production.
At present, the ever growing inflationary pressures may drag on profit outlooks, so I consider $60/t to be a conservative, but prudent number.
Once they start to construct stage 3, then the current transport infrastructure will likely struggle, so the building of the promised railway comes into play.
There is approx 120millon shares outstanding, so if you budget the proposed production numbers, multiply the perceived profits, this may give an indication of future outlooks.
As the CAGR is considered to be around 3.5%, and if the whole production tonnage is sold in it's entirety (FOB) , then the future looks far from bleak.
Current high quality kaolin sells for around $350/t US at present, however this doesn't take into account possible sales of lesser quality byproduct, nor any HP aluminium plays that may eventuate. It too can't allow for any recession based retraction in demand either.
My current valuation on the SP is 30c, but this is sentiment based only, and no accounting procedure was considered.
It is just a waiting game to see Where the new buyers come from, and at what price are they prepared to pay...
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