This is an excellent point. As is the size of the TAM. I also...

This is an excellent point. As is the size of the TAM.

I also suspect that people who have lost weight and no longer technically need the CPAP machines they've successfully used for many years, may happily continue using them if they are borderline cases. It may become a habit. You know it helps you. In the past you were struggling, but the machine helped/is helping a great deal. You've lost weight and are feeling good, but the machine is a small inconvenience and there's no way you'd want to be like you were 5 years ago. The SAAS cloud data reinforces it. This is pure speculation on my part.

I know of elderly people who complain incessantly about the poor quality of the local newspaper. They've been buying it for decades. They rarely read any of the articles. It used to be a good publication. When l suggest saving the money and trouble of visiting the newsagent each week they become annoyed. "If I stop buying it, I might miss something important". Some adults sleep with a stuffed animal too. I guess they feel they need one.

Many thanks to @1Abobo for uploading this information.

As someone who has spent a lot of time living in Asia over the past two decades, I can also report that one rarely saw an unhealthy-looking, overweight person twenty years ago. Nowadays, they're quite common. City living, long hours and western-style diets are to blame. A huge rise in diabetes and obesity. These people have more money to spend on treatments and prefer western products. Anecdotally, I'd say Asian men are far more sensible about visiting doctors in the way western, Anglo Saxon men are not ("she'll be right, mate. Doctors don't know anything! I'm okay. Leave me alone"). The growth in Asia must be huge.

When a share price is rising, the pundits and usual suspects will shower you with a bull case to support the narrative and claim to be geniuses. When it's falling, the opposite happens. It's reactionary, rather than insightful or predictive.

I bought at ~$24 and have made a number of purchases since to dollar cost average. That psychologically important $20 shouldn't be such a barrier as, in the same way as an ETF works, our share price simply mirrors the US price. I'm not sure what $20 would translate to in US terms, when accounting for the 10:1 aspect and currency conversion. At $20.00 I'll get another decent-sized parcel.

Buying RMD today over Novo Nordisk requires one to take a side; and a slight leap of faith. You have to assume the drugs will not cure obesity *and* sleep apnea worldwide. I think assuming the drugs will do this is a bridge too far. Whilst no doubt useful, the bull case for the so-called wonder drugs has, in my opinion, been blown way out of proportion. It reminds me of 1999 when growth projections for many tech stocks would have valued them greater than entire major economies' GDP figures in 3-5 years. In hindsight it was ridiculous.

Never underestimate the propensity of folks to eat, drink or gamble to excess. And l would argue more willpower is needed to lose weight using the new drugs than we are taking into consideration. I can eat healthier food and buy a cheap gym membership. That's easy. I can't imagine spending a small fortune each year on the new drugs, not being able to enjoy meals out, having indigestion and other unpleasant side effects; being tied to pills every day. Just to lose 20% of my body weight. That sounds tough. I'd rather spend a few hundred dollars on Man Shake.

If I'm currently 160kg, it still brings me to 120-odd kg.... and a Resmed device. The doctor can write me a prescription and referral for both since I'm suddenly interested in my physical well-being! A lot of the loss is apparently muscle, which surely slows the metabolism as muscle burns calories. Not ideal -- especially for men. And stop taking the pills....weight comes back faster than ever. A massive leap of faith to think Ozempic will cure obesity world-wide. Who wants to be on Ozempic all their life!?

I suspect the drugs would be good if you're interested in losing weight quickly for your upcoming wedding in two months' time. Then it's back to old habits of McDonald's after work and the weight comes back almost as fast as you lost it.

There is no way I'm selling my shares. I'll be letting my thesis play out and buying more. I'm not a finance guy who can analyse the numbers, but I know a dodgy narrative and unwarranted fear when I see it. A P/E ratio of ~20 for an industry leader with double digit growth and a huge TAM....yeah I'll have some of that.

A final point: I noticed GS gave a M&A ranking of "2" (out of 3) for RMD in yesterday's "buy" recommendation. It's usually "3" for large cap companies by default. I wonder at what price RMD would attract an offer, what such an offer would be, and which companies would be interested. Someone like Johnson and Johnson maybe?