RMD 4.36% $29.90 resmed inc

Ann: ResMed Announces Results for the First Quarter of FY2024, page-38

  1. 7,421 Posts.
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    A few points you need to consider

    1. Device sales are cycling comps against the Phillips recall. They are unlikely to have that kind of device growth ever again. A baseline for devices is mid single digits (Market rate of growth). I would use this as a baseline. Year on year they grew, predominately from regions outside of the U.S. No red flags here I can see.
    2. Inflation is still being cycled out of inventory. They have paid for devices to be manufactured, stored, distributed etc. We should see the end of this through 2H Fy 24
    3. You keep stating they are going backwards. This isn't true, earnings and revenue are still growing. Product mix of more masks and SaaS revenue will continue to drive higher profitability as well as the full rollout of the Airsense 11. Medifox Dan hasn't even been under RMD for a year. There is currently no reason to think earnings won't continue to grow at low double digits.
    4. They have right sized the cost base (which lead to EPS growth) and now have the ability to conduct an on market buy back and use all that free cash. Again, this will directly benefit TSR.
    5. RMD had a one off Astral field safety recall cost of $9mil which effected your Income figure. Without they they matched last quarters net Income figure and grew 9% PCP.

    Overall it seems you are freaking over cycling the Phillips recall comps. This does nothing to instruct how you should think about the long term "funnel" of patients RMD will continue to bring in to it's offerings. In other words, your observation of the decline in growth could be symptomatic of the structural decline of CPAP or could just another blip on the now 30 year radar of resmed almost perfectly linear growth journey.
 
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