Ok then janitmot, by your logic I could have 2 companies - both with earnings of 100m in FY15.
Company A has a 2 year mine life, and company B has a 20 year mine life. If you apply a P/E of 10 to them both then you have a very funny idea of value.
So why are you trying to apply a normal metric? If you want to value RSG, do a proper DCF that takes into account mine life, evolution of grade, remediation costs, capex and all the other stuff that it takes to value a miner. Once you've done this, you can then plug in a price and see what future gold price it is discounting. Or you can run a monte carlo analysis and make a good guess at what it should be worth. Consensus from the brokers was about 60c before yesterday's news.
Saying sentiment affects share prices is like saying weather affects umbrella sales - and far from unique to gold miners.
My view on the valuation of RSG is that it is worth less than it was yesterday morning - their FY15 guidance is significantly worse than expected. Unfortunately for me, I've run into one of those unpredictable sentiment-based gold stock rallies you were mentioning (as the commodity itself is flat on yesterday's close) - As to the rest, I don't really care.
RSG Price at posting:
65.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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