NPV is a bit difficult to calculate in a linear fashion like that. Really need to consider the mine plan.
Some observations from the previous feasibility study:
- The existing resource already uses $2000/oz for the pit modeling. It's unlikely that there will be significant change in the mine plan from McP deposit based on gold price sensitivity. They could add ounces from Discovery Ridge though.
- The early years have much higher stripping and lower grade/fewer ounces. There was no breakdown of annual costs but I'd say even in the old study it could have been more like A$1300/oz avg in years 1-4 and then A$800/oz after that. So maybe those numbers change to A$1500/oz and A$1000/oz. This has implications in terms of discounting cashflows (early years are more important for the NPV as is the capex).
A$2200/oz sounds about right as a gold price assumption.
It's likely the NPV will increase over the PFS, mainly due to the gold price. The capital efficiency might be something to keep an eye on vs the the NPV itself. The market is sensitive to capex in mid-cap gold miners at the moment. Need to keep an eye on NPV/capex. Generally something <2.0 would be a fairly middle-of-the-road project.
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