The way I see it, there are so many factors globally which will most likely generate some strong tailwinds for the POG over the next couple of months (trade wars, Brexit, Iran, the wish for currency devaluations by practically all major economies = the race to the bottom) that goldminers will continue to outperform the general Stock market considerably.
Agree Waterman 100%-Any move upwards Re the POG -is cream for NST-Global tensions are affecting the POG movements -new capital flowing into the sector & ETF'S is confirmation -Pushing stock prices up and above historical technical highs-( note yes they are technical highs though only based on global stability ATT ) This is CHANGING RAPIDLY ATM -not so easy for technical analysis to factor in such metrics as they are not forward looking.-Hence as the sector & NST attracts capital from the new wave of capital in flows-can you only rely on previous perceived highs relative to ASIC & Margins if Technical analysis can't allow for the potential for the POG to have very large moves associated with so many global factors clearly on the horizon.
No it can't obviously as its based on historical analysis & very likely why many assume many tier one gold producers s/p are at near or above & therefore thought to as being overbought & maxed out relative to analysis of historical highs . Completely understand technical analysis is based on facts historical facts, Though its the new money movement driving prices ATM-watch capital flows carefully as blue sky break outs are occurring-fact -POG can have huge moves associated should global tension escalate . Its all about the new money not the old money as this sector is very small when new capital seeks redeployment due to perceived risks associated with where it is or was vested. Interesting times & not so easy ATM to determine the right time to say ok I will take some profits because i believe the s/p is now overbought -like yesterday for instance & now look what happened to the POG overnight .
Lets see what eventuates today -if you are serious about selling due to above mentioned today you can sell into momentum, some may have sold already at the top ( Good for you ) and are awaiting re-entry & probably were not expecting a snap back scenario so quick thus the essence of my post -Not so easy to predict on Technical Analysis alone due to the POG movements & new money movement factors.
gltah
Latest-Re -Tensions associated with US & Iran-Directly relative to effecting the POG & All of the gold sector /industry.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/imposes-sanctions-iranian-foreign-minister-zarif-190731203547531.htmlhttps://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2019/08/01/ali-vaez-iran-us-conflict-zarif-pompeo-sanctions-aman.cnn?https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-missiles-hezbollah-in-iraq-threaten-israel-1.7606916
(20min delay)