CTP 1.96% 5.2¢ central petroleum limited

seems to be a lot of bagging of people based on the possible...

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  1. 558 Posts.
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    seems to be a lot of bagging of people based on the possible potential that CTP may or may not offer.

    So, lets look at what we know.
    - Central have assets within the Amadeus basin that are highly prospective for helium and hydrogen.
    - Some of Central Petroleum’s exploration wells have registered concentrations between 6-11% of helium.
    - The last well showed signs of helium but had to stop due to high pressure, we do not know at this time what was causing that high pressure.
    - We have 2 partners, one a major player in the gas field that are committing tens of millions of $’s into drilling in the next 12 months based on the evidence their experts have seen.
    - The current global market for bulk liquid helium is worth over US$2 billion with export prices to China in 2022 exceeding US$450 per thousand feet.
    - The cost of helium has increased 250% over the last five years, making scientific research more expensive.
    - The helium market is subject to frequent price shocks. Helium reaching US$375 mcf in late 2022
    - The worlds Helium supply is falling behind the increasing demand leading to shortages and cost escalation.
    - Currently, the only commercially viable source of helium is natural gas, with production mostly occurring via LNG plants.
    - Australia is the world’s largest LNG exporter, it has only one helium recovery plant and contributes merely 2.6% to global production.
    - Helium production is challenging because of the high capital and operating costs associated with conventional recovery technologies.
    - There is a site in Darwin that processes Helium that may be shutting down due to the lack of product which we may have in the next year or so

    The process to extract helium at the moment is:
    1, Natural gas processing/pretreatment (removal of hydrogen sulphide, carbon dioxide, water and heavy metals)
    2.Natural gas refrigeration (removal of heavier hydrocarbons if any) and liquefaction (production of liquefied natural gas)
    3. Nitrogen rejection (removal of nitrogen) / helium recovery from natural gasHelium upgrading
    4. Helium purification
    5. Helium liquefaction

    . An Australian Helium processing project is in play that was designing a new way to extract Helium was supposed to close in 2022, Australia's Helium Future : NERA National Energy Resources Australia
    - This project aims to lower these cost barriers and add value to the gas industry by recovering the otherwise elusive helium in LNG production, while also developing the industry and creating new jobs in Australia’s energy resources sector
    - To achieve this, the project will develop and demonstrate non-cryogenic technologies for helium recovery that can potentially cut the production cost by 50% compared to current approaches that are based on deep cryogenic processing.
    - The project’s key milestone will be the delivery of a pilot facility that enables industrial-scale demonstration of new adsorption-based technologies for helium recovery. This will allow the translation of novel helium-selective adsorbent materials and process technology from the laboratory into industry, and facilitate the demonstration of new, non-cryogenic process cycles for helium recovery.

    I contacted NERA advising I was an CTP investor and was looking for an update they advised:
    - The project was delayed due to covid so will end in May this year.
    - They also advised that Peak Helium are well aware of the project and will be engaged again once the final results are known. I did not mention peak to them in my email.
    - The project has involved the manufacturing of a pilot scale processing skid which is designed for industrial-scale demonstration and can be relocated to site if desired.


    Given all of the above and the extremely low share price, i.e. Commsec's morning stars fair value evaulation on CTP is 13c. so in the long term i do not see a lot of downside here. happly bought more today.

 
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