from Handelsblatt GermanyExperts expect dramatic bottlenecks in...

from Handelsblatt Germany

Experts expect dramatic bottlenecks in battery cellsThe demand for raw materials will rise dramatically. Experts anticipate a global investment requirement of 140 billion dollars by 2030.


Düsseldorf.
In Salzgitter there is not much to see yet. In the newly built production hall of the Volkswagen engine plant, a production line perhaps 80 metres long has been built. The car manufacturer had the actual production facilities built behind thick white walls.The production of the battery cells takes place behind these walls and is hermetically sealed from the surroundings. VW employees control the production through secure windows. The production of battery cells is not necessarily a completely clean affair. Chemistry is in the foreground when lithium, nickel, graphite and cobalt are processed for the cells.What was erected in Salzgitter, Lower Saxony, in the past nine months is not much more than a beginning today. Volkswagen has built a pilot plant for the production of battery cells at its engine plant. The main purpose of the pilot plant is to build and develop prototypes, but series production is not planned.The final annual capacity in Salzgitter will be less than one gigawatt hour. This amount of battery cells could be used to equip perhaps 15,000 purely electric vehicles with a medium range in the mid-range format.Topics of the articleVolkswagenelectromobilityautomobile industryDavos 2019This is far too little for what Volkswagen is planning in terms of electric mobility in the coming years. By the middle of the next decade, the Volkswagen brand alone plans to sell one million electric cars a year. In the Group as a whole, around 70 different electric models are planned over the next ten years.And not only at Volkswagen: The significantly tightened carbon dioxide limits in the EU are forcing all automobile manufacturers to massively expand electric mobility.All this can only be achieved with strong growth in electric drive systems with more batteries and battery cells. Because limit values are becoming much stricter not only in Europe but also in China, for example, demand for additional battery cells is growing worldwide.In a new study, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the management consultancy McKinsey come to the conclusion that the production capacities for battery cells must be dramatically expanded.By the end of last year, battery cells with a capacity of around 184 gigawatt hours could have been produced worldwide, which would have been enough for around three million mid-range e-cars. By comparison, what will be needed in the coming years sounds enormous. The authors of WEF and McKinsey calculate in a basic scenario that the demand for battery cells will increase fourteenfold by 2030.Strongest demand comes from ChinaIf this forecast is correct, almost 2,600 gigawatt hours will be needed by the end of the next decade. If this capacity were only used for electric cars, about 45 million medium-sized electric vehicles could be equipped with it. In a second scenario, the study states that an increase of even nineteen times is conceivable.The fact that so many more battery cells will be needed in the future is almost exclusively due to the changeover to electric power take-off in passenger cars. Battery cells are also still needed for consumer electronics (such as smartphones) and energy storage. But the growth rates in these two areas are almost dwarfed by those of electromobility.In the year 2030, around 60 percent of global cell demand will be used for passenger cars. A further 27 percent will be installed in commercial vehicles, according to WEF and McKinsey forecasts. Consumer electronics will then require just 2.6 percent of all battery cells in demand; today, the share is still around 20 percent.From a regional perspective, China accounts for the strongest demand. In 2030, the People's Republic will probably use more than 40 percent of all battery cells manufactured worldwide in products - primarily cars - from its own country. According to the figures, the EU is likely to account for around 17 percent, and the USA for just under 14 percent.