hello,I did say id reply when I had a chance, and while time is...

hello,

I did say id reply when I had a chance, and while time is still short, Ill keep this post short as well.

As for your original question, there is nothing more I can really add that hasn't been said by other posters, notably @prhb, in regards to the markets low value for ALK atm. If anything, it would be the old quip, that sharemarkets can remain irrational longer then you can stay solvent.

But that asides, why do I like management?, asides from all the good comments from posters above.

Well, maybe the number one and two reason, can't decide the order, is their conservative approach and their ability to be 3 or 4 steps ahead of the market, and its analysts.

Whilst their conservative nature has been well articulated in many previous posts by a number of posters, Ill focus on the later.

The easiest indication of being 3 to 4 steps ahead of the market can be seen in the 'exploration drive' constructed to access the Roswell deposit. Once they had formed the view that Roswell would be economic (around 21 I think) to mine both open cut and underground, they immediately started the exploration drive from Tomo to Roswell, knowing full well they'd require 2 to 3 years to get mining approval. That way they arrived on the ore body at around the same time as mine approval was granted, then the old (exploration shaft) was conveniently turned into the primary mine shaft. There are plenty more situations of strategic forward thinking if one conducts ones DD.

And extrapolating this into the future, this is something Ive been thinking about over the last month or two, whilst others look back and whine about missing guidance by 4000 oz in 1 year out of 9/10 or complaining about forward oz sold to secure the loan required to bring the new mine up to its efficient maximum. And that is simply this, management are forecasting 100 000 pa run rate for a number of years from about mid 26 when the diversion and plant upgrade are completed. Do the numbers and you will know what I mean. Firstly, as the paste and fine grind plants become operational over next 3/6 months the UG ore body will begin producing a forecast 90 000 oz annual run rate (middle of forecast by mgt). As this is occurring, the highway is being realigned and the plant to be increased from the current 1 mtpa to circa 1.5 mtpa to allow for the throughput of additional ore from the open pits. Now when completed (2 years ?), this means there should be a 40 odd percent increase in throughput (currently running 1.1 mtpa from memory) from the open pits which are slightly lower grade. Now, is that appreciation in throughput only going to provide an additional 10k to add to the 90k to bring it up to the 100k mark, or could it go a little higher?? Ill let you all do the numbers and see what you think.