I find context is important @arsenic
The 30,000' view for the world's primary debt issuer is
Debt/gdp >100% (circa 120%+ atm)
Fiscal deficits 7-8%
NIIP (net international investment position) of -80% (ouch)
but as world's reserve currency issuer they have a printing press.
The propeller heads view things from the last 4 decades lens (where bonds were great investments but if you track them back to 1901 they have been terrible (negative) over the longer term, recency bias) and the last time the above conditions were similar was well before 4 decades, if we go back to the last time such conditions were prevalent there were certain processes implemented and these are happening now but most are missing the forest for the trees.
My guess is history rhymes and that's why I wasn't surprised by the first 50bps cut recently and fully expect a couple more such events this year as the US will not be defunded in cold war 2.0 because their interest bill on their debt is too high, with $15 Trillion to be rolled at the short end next couple years.
Anyone talking jobs, inflation etc, I disregard, they're missing the priorities of the market makers of the global debt system.
Needless to say this all bodes very well for commodities and PM's as we have discussed and I've positioned accordingly.
That's enough of my ramblings mate, just passing the time whilst we wait for news flow but I'll leave it there.
Looking forward to being on the right side of a once in a multi generational opportunity in line with the larger debt cycle patterns.
As always, I may be full of it, just having a punt and like everyone else, just guessing.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.8¢ | 5.9¢ | 5.7¢ | $534.5K | 9.245M |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
11 | 23257461 | 5.7¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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5.8¢ | 446366 | 4 |
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10 | 23238872 | 0.057 |
7 | 7558589 | 0.056 |
2 | 87093 | 0.055 |
3 | 1474300 | 0.054 |
1 | 40000 | 0.025 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.058 | 446366 | 4 |
0.059 | 2047835 | 7 |
0.060 | 4496836 | 19 |
0.061 | 2194500 | 2 |
0.062 | 720000 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 25/06/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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