I totally understand your frustration, but there are...

I totally understand your frustration, but there are distinctions.

For one, entire world markets were decimated during the time when the OGC price collapsed, and commodity related stocks were among the hardest hit. The disappointment with Dipidio, and the complications at Ospyrae only enhanced this painful decline. Short-sellers made money, yes, but I don't believe it was based on any insider knowledge - which what the ASX was getting at with their letter. If manipulation did occur with short-sellers, there really wouldn't be any point of asking OGC about it. To be honest, this being my first foray into a stock listed on both the TSX and ASX, I think the ASX is much more on top of things like this, and there is much more disclosure.

What happened over the last few days on both the ASX and TSX looked suspicious to say the least. Some large volumes/price increases or both, in the absense of any substantiated news. Was it the Merrill report? I doubt it - look at the brokerage houses involved on the large trades - some were just crosses, but I think there is more to it than just a research report. The cynic in me feels like someone knows something about Dipidio (JV, sale?) or more importantly, there are sharks in the OGC waters, who are looking to take the company out. Let's face it, in the last few weeks, Newcrest and Lihir have indicated interest in acquisitions - what better opportunity than a 250,000+ producer in New Zealand. Of course, the large debt load and the derivatives pose an obstable, but if you use a standard of valuation like Harmony commented on (who is also looking for Asian/Australian acquisitions) $2,000,000 for every 1,000 producing ounces (which at a $800 gold price with $500 operating cost is 7 times cash flow), one could argue OGC should be at $500 million less debt/derivatives/working cap deficit makes it a 200-230 million dollar operation.

Than you can use Dipidio and the extra 20-30k ounces of production as a "cushion."

Thus, is $1.50 a share acquisition price in the near future unreasonable? To me, only a negative surpise, mismanagement, or some clear indications that mine life has no hope of being extended in NZ could prevent this stock from climbing in price over the next few months. Oh yeah, if gold price collapses, then that of course throws this scenario out too. Don't say it can't happen - nothing should surprise anyone anymore.