i have been out all day so I've only had an opportunity ti skim read the report. I now have a problem believing anything that CLI says because up to the 31st October everything was reported as going to plan including the DL contract.
This ASX inquiry only addresses the CBD%age and not the biomass downgrade from 900K lbs to 407K Lbs. The frost event 9th to 12th Oct inclusive may (& I say may) account for some loss of CBD but not that much, IMO. To end up with an average of 2% CBD is just absurd, IMO.I simply dont believe it.
IMO the ASX should have asked what audits were done & when on the crop to ascertain poundage & when was it known that the poundage would be over 50% less than expected. Yhis is very important IMO because the poundage should have been known by THC testing towards the end of Sept. This is when the Share price began to plummet and by the 14th Nov trading halt the share price had dropped over 50%. If biomass poundage was forecastable by mid to late Sept and if this was known by some, it could be a motive to sell down the stock, IMO.
Perhaps the ASX should follow up with a set of questions relating to biomass poundage. I realise that the end result may have been the same (IE: 407K lbs of useless biomass vs 900K Lbs of useless biomass) but if I had that info late Sept I would have sold my stock then. At the time I thought that a minor drop in biomass from say 900K Lbs to 800K lbs would be compensated for by CBD being 12% rather than the target 10%.
Given that I now find it very difficult to believe CLI*, their response to the ASX questions are essentially a rehash of the 20th Dec tragic report which I do not believe either. So: -IMO the 21st Oct ann was deceptive , IMO because 100 acres had already been harvested with 500 odd Lbs sent to DL (I presume sample) If if takes 7 to 10 dys to dry, then this 100acres would have to have been cut by the 10th ( CLI said cutting commenced on the 8th a day before the severe frosts commenced which was on the 9th.
Witha hemp specialist and a senior agronomist on site, either or both will have tested CBD and estimated poundage on or before the 21st Oct. hand held portable CBD testers are commercially available for about $5K and with such emphasis on crop scientific monitoring, the hemp specialist and /orthe agronomist should have known that the crop was a flop both in CBD & poundage.
IMO the 28th Ann was likely "fake" news because by then DL would have likely rejected the first 500 odd lbs and would be wary of the 6K bs. Lets face it, DL would have thought all its birthdays came at once; the CLi contract default would have saved DL $6mil - $8 mil USD and they would have, IMO tested the CBD & rejected it right away. This 30 day return window is bullshit IMO.
IMO, there are 3 legal issues here: (a) the discrepancy between the 900K Lbs giude & the 407K Lbs actual. When this was known, who knew it and why was it not reported in September. IMo those who bought since the 20th Sept or so could have a case based on what CLI oughtto have known about the 900K Lbs not likely being met.
(b) Those who held post 20th Sept may have a weaker case that (a) but were likely decieved by CLi not giving an update on biomass poundage.
(c) Those who bought post 21st October have the strongest case because the company was still confirming acceptable CBD% & the commencement of the DL contract worth $10.5 Mil USD for less than 30% of the crop ( we now know that that was 300K Lbs) IMO the company should have known by 21st October that 100 acres at least had been negatively impacted by the 9th Oct to the 12th Oct inclusive. If the frost was that abnormal & unexpected then surely the first thing would be to test the THC on farm. If the weather event was expected then why did CLi not at least cut & dry some hemp before hand. ( it would be interesting to get acuweather's 24 day forecast on the 27th Sept. We can only access the actuals online.)
The ASX will need to ask CLI when initially did DL give CLI feedback that the 500Lbs odd biomass was non-compliant? This, IMO, is market sensitive and should have been announced right away. Instead we got an ann on the 28th Oct saying that the DL contract had commences as per the Aug Ann.
All in all there has been a loss in value of about $15 mil between Sept & now with a likely $10 mil loss when CLI commences trading (if ever)
Of course there is the issue of those who sold. Did they have inside info?
All IMO only and shareholders should seek professional advice before taking any action on these issues.
MM
*IMO, CLI will have ran this response to the ASX questions past a bevy of lawyers & PR spin merchants.
