We all accept it was a bad quarter. The ASX response dodged some...

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Leapzig

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03/11/20

18:26

Post #: 48617573
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Originally posted by rasaj: ↑

Following on from my thoughts yesterday, I've taken some time to revisit the 4C and this announcement.

In addition to China and the Blackmore subsidiary, we also have the benefit of sales via Coles and transactions via e-commerce channels. I'm most heartened by the sales growth in e-commerce channels (up 60% on last quarter), as this seems to be where most of their marketing efforts are - i.e. social media/online. I highlight that the Coles advertising appears to have been restricted primarily to junk mail brochures and not a lot more to date.

Additionally, I also note the comment regarding two shipments of Fiji Kava extract taking between 3 and 3.5 weeks to process through customs, with both having arrived in Australia in September. I'm unaware of their nature and size, however, I do note that if this was finished product yet to be sold, it would be fascinating to see if they were to somehow capture their impact in Q1.

Finally, it would be nice to be able to see a breakup of what country the sales are occurring in and how they're being sold - i.e. e-commerce channels, or physical in-store sales.

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We all accept it was a bad quarter. The ASX response dodged some intended queries but overall I believe the product works and if marketed and managed correctly the share price will increase. Lets see how this quarter goes with the new CEO, and lets hope that Zane lets the interim CEO steer the ship as he clearly dropped the ball last quarter.

What we do not want as shareholders in the future is to read between the lines to interpret statements like 'showing uneven growth'. The Directors can do better than that. I believe the ASX were questioning more in relation to costs than just the 20% increase in fees. To better understand the differences in the last two quarters look at them side by side and draw your own conclusions. Not a good look.

The questions as an investor I am asking myself are-

1. Do I believe the companies explanation to the drop in share price after the release of the quarterly?
2. Do I think the product works?
3. Is the company serious about growth? not just annual growth (lumpy growth) but quarter on quarter growth?
4. Will Zane Yoshida allow the new CEO to steer the growth of the company, or will he micro manage all decisions in relation to the company?
5. Can the Company succeed in China without over leveraging themselves to China?
5. Is Simms the right future CEO, considering 'Bubs' failure in China, and his failure as a part of the team over the past quarter?

FWIW, I hold because I believe the product works (I have used it continuously for a while now), and because of the non-exclusive licence agreement with BioCeuticals, (Blackmores) to develop a co-branded product for release in Australia and New Zealand. This is a practitioner product (top of the line), Blackmores would have done extensive due diligence on this product before entering the agreement (its a big tick for me).

I can't answer the other questions just yet but I am sure I will be able to as time progresses. Hard to say if I will make money on this stock but its worth the risk at the current price.

Last edited by Leapzig: 03/11/20

FIJ Price at posting: 17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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