Hello
@RedRooster2,
many thx and I highly appreciate your contributions to the STX thread - these are a real asset.
Just a few points as to why I decided to sell. I feel the two failures with SE3 and SE2 are very serious and with consequences in different aspects.
It is a major setback for the gas acceleration strategy. South Erregulla will now be much smaller than expected. This makes even the acquisition of the land for the precinct questionable, as it is now no longer certain whether a gas processing facility there makes any economic sense at all. In my opinion, the entire concept of a modular construction is now in question. If at all, a gas processing facility there now only seems conceivable as a joint solution for West Erregulla and South Erregulla.
The main problem, however, is that the unexpected failures at SE3, SE2 and also Lockyer Deep-2 show that the geology of the Permian structures is complex and that it is obviously not enough to drill on the basis of 2D data. Drilling was carried out on the basis of such data in order to avoid lengthy 3D data acquisition and to achieve progress and success as quickly as possible. A very risky strategy, as we can now see, which did not work out.Here I would like to express my great appreciation to
@Tooter. He had criticized this from the beginning and now it is clear that he was absolutely right. And at the time I defended the statements about the quality of an "integrated" data set from the company - obviously complete nonsense... in fact we only had three modern 2D lines for these two wells and otherwise old legacy data...
Unfortunately,I now also see the two planned new West Erregulla wells (Erregulla-Deep, SWErregulla) at much higher risk. The originally planned acquisition of 3Dseismic data never took place in EP469 and now these two wells will also onlybe drilled on the basis of 2D (let's wait and see how HPL now assesses thissituation and perhaps demands 3D data first after all).
I also criticize Strike's poor information policy. Only with the Bell Potter presentation, for example, do we see that the SE structure is divided into compartments (if they themselves only suspect this from the SE3 results, then this drilling was all the more a complete blind flight...).
What'snext?
Ocean Hill has only now (early February)received environmental approval for a 3D seismic campaign. The question is howquickly Strike can now mobilize for the acquisition, but drilling is notrealistic until sometime next year, because processing and calibration of these new data will take some time.
So, I think they will now probably put a big focus on Walyering: the W7 drilling has a good chance of success (drilling based on modern 3D seismic data calibrated with the historical logging data and of course with W5 and W6). They will probably increase production capacity significantly and we may soon see new GSA contracts. In my view, this is where the greatest opportunities for a short-term share price recovery lie...
Dear @Spockie, @Oraka, @lame ( 
), @SkyPunter, @BaronP, @gerfovitch (if you are still on wallstreet-online.de we can have a direct chat), @invertedva and others, many thanks for your kind words. I will continue to monitor STX and contribute to the discussion if I have something useful to say... see you all...
(20min delay)