Since 2005, I've been a holder of Strike, engaging rarely but consistently absorbing insights from HotCopper's community, where you stand out as a profoundly insightful contributor. Your decision to sell has struck a chord with me, recalling our initial meeting on wallstreet-online.de back in late October 2006. Those were the days of a different management at Strike, drilling in Texas among other places, discussing Duncan, McGill, and the like. It was me, if memory serves right, who introduced you to HotCopper, seeking a forum with richer content quality. Your exit now, therefore, resonates deeply with me.
Benjamin Graham's timeless adage, "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine," has never been more pertinent. Today's Strike, with its share price mirroring figures from two decades ago, presents a stark contrast to its former self. As a now thriving producer, particularly with Walyering in the Perth Basin, the company boasts a low-cost, geographically focused portfolio with significant upside potential. The Warrego takeover evaluations pegged a look-through value around 80 cents, a figure not including rising gas prices, wide and highly prospective exploration fairway in the Perth Basin, Walyering being a producer, and - let this sink in - SE2 & SE3 not even drilled that time. All the positives are suddenly gone and not reflected in current market sentiment value, despite strong leadership and recent board-level investments signaling confidence.
This undervaluation, as highlighted in numerous posts by users like 618, underscores a significant discrepancy between market perception and intrinsic value. The prevailing negative sentiment, while disheartening, is a hallmark of stock market dynamics—prone to exaggerations both bullish and bearish. Currently, we find ourselves amidst the latter, yet historical patterns suggest such times are ripe for strategic entry, promising long-term alpha.
The unexpected outcomes from SE2 & SE3, while a setback, align with industry norms. Such developments, surprising to both shareholders and management, should not deter us. On the contrary, they serve as a call to reassess, not abandon, our conviction in Strike's fundamentals. The question of why you chose to sell now, particularly in light of these events, puzzles me. Is it a loss of faith in management, or a reaction to short-term volatility?
I posit that today's market overreaction presents a skewed narrative, one ripe for correction. The potential for positive developments—be it SE2 & SE3's recovery plan, speculative takeover bids, or the Ocean Hill 3D prospects—coupled with rising gas prices, suggests an impending revaluation.
Our collective journey, albeit marked by periods of stagnation, has been rich with learning, invaluable for navigating the complexities of investment. To all steadfast in their belief in Strike and its management, the journey continues, albeit with the celebratory oysters party deferred, yet the conviction in Strike's undervalued potential is stronger than ever. Best wishes to all shareholders navigating these turbulent times, holding firm to the belief in Strike's fundamentals and leadership potential.
STX Price at posting:
21.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
