AKM 3.13% 31.0¢ aspire mining limited

Ann: Response to ASX Price and Volume Query, page-7

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  1. 27,758 Posts.
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    The drop could have been worries over Noble - the rise could equally be that those previous sellers can see that a noble is getting closer to successful restructuring.

    It could equally have been just impatient large positions exiting over the course of a few months .

    For mine - I think an impaired noble was manageable . Didn't effect Nuurstei production plans - and a limited royalty due in when in production to repay a loan . A large shareholder yes - but any administrator liquidating would want an off market auction for the best outcome than dump into a retail market imo - and the significant partners in the Northern rail - I would think would just swallow up a weakened JV partner.

    The positives upside to IMO and DYOR - 30m come 400m margins ?? / Nuurstei- Ovoot outweighs any awkwardness over Noble if they were unsuccessful in restructuring. Need feasibility numbers to get a more solid idea.

    Speculative markets can be swayed by caution and fear to drift a price lower on light volumes . If someone wants out and they continue to feed the sell que - we drift lower especially when their are delays and a lack of urgency from buyers

    The upside is incredible imo when the market catches on . Nuurstei just the beginning- and if the consortium green light the rail - unlocking Ovoot - well how big can big really be ? Need to see feasibility margins - but multiply by 10m tpa and enormous. Eg 400m pa ??
    X PE 8 = 3b mc??

    No wonder we flashed up to 600m mc when Ovoot was first introduced.

    I have no idea what 34% of a china Russia rail freight can earn us . But may be a project that may underpins valuations to conservative buyers outside the coal markets of Nuurstei/ Ovoot.
    Last edited by stevenjd: 25/04/18
 
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