At the end of the day the listings is a nice stat but to be honest I think it misses the forest for the trees. Zameen by all accounts is the dominant player in Pak and the number two is a distance second. This is not debated. The quality of the listings is unknown so hard to compare to peers i.e. what is a companies policy on redundant inventory, what is scraped inventory etc.
The bulk of Zameen's revenues will come from their participation in the transaction i.e. being an advertising partner for the developers. This is not a traditional leads based business. I really don't think it matters if Zameen's listings are +/-10% month to month or quarter to quarter, they have a vibrant marketplace which is what matters. The success of this business will be linked to their ability to penetrate the developers and building out these partnerships i.e. proving they are a successful sales channel. This is clear when you look at revenue growth which has been much much higher than listings growth.
Thinking about the move last week, it is very odd, yes its tightly held so you can expect big moves in both directions on one or two buyers/ sellers. But why is someone going to push the share price up on a single day to get set, why not pace it out a bit? Suggests their is a reason for urgency. If we look at ICQ a similar business they rallied strongly a few days in advance of their 4C release, maybe we should be expecting a solid announcement from FDV?
I agree that listings could be a poor proxy for revenue.
For those of us who are part-owners of this business, this begs the questions of what other data might be useful to investors, and whether FDV can and should make more of it available.
By comparison, aside from listings REA publishes information on site visits, app installations, tenant verifications and all sorts of other activity drivers.
While I appreciate the need to keep some data out of the hands of competitors, making these sorts of performance metrics available would help demonstrate the underlying value of FDV's portfolio and address the (perceived) market underpricing.
FDV Price at posting:
97.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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