Ann: Response to ASX Price Query, page-9

My take on barrenjoey is that they have been too aggressive with their DCF projection.

DCF is very difficult analysis, it magnifies any errors the further out you you project, they have projected out to 2030, then they pull it back and get a fair price of $2.15, which is just ridiculous, their PE price est. is 3.94, they then pick a mid point between those extremes for their Price target of $3.05 ($3.20 in 12m)

The source of their DCF error is a that they are predicting revenue from Salmon in 2030 to be 9% below FY22, i cant imagine how that could happen given the growth history of the industry, the outlook and supply limits.

Their revenue estimates are 25% below what they say are consensus estimates in 2030.

And the GS estimates that came out a week or so ago was using 10k of prawns in 2030, so it is a fair comparison for the BJ est to GS's DSF value of $4.70. GS estimate is more than twice BJ DSF estimate.

The language they use on salmon prices make me think are having difficulty reading the market, their headline is "Salmon prices down 18% form 1-May peak', its almost disinformation, they dont mention how high the peak was, just "we make no change to our salmon price forecast", we have seen probably one of the most significant price hikes the industry has seen, but they cant see it.

I could look further and try and compare DCF from GS and BJ, but thats enough for me to ignore it.