~~ ALL OPINIONS with assumptions & speculation, DYOR ~~
Let's paint a pessimistic picture:
- 6279 subscribers from 925,000 invites = 0.67881% uptake
- Let's assume that all things considered, only half of the 11m pre-regs are real individuals (so that's a total of only 5,500,000 invites)
- Let's assume that the uptake rate for the remaining invites is only 50% of current uptake rate (whether or not this is optimistic or pessimistic is impossible to say, IMHO; very speculative).
- With above assumptions: that's 6,279 from the fist 925,000 invites, and ~15527 from the remaining 4,575,000 invites; so total of ~~21,807 subscribers from the pre-regs.
- [what is the price of the different subscription packages? All I know is that the monthly is $8.50USD]??
- Let's assume an average discount of 20% from packages purchased, and an average discount of 20% from C1 incentives and from free memberships given away due to pre-reg incentives. That would leave us with the revenue of the subscribers * ~64%, ~~$118,630 USD per month.
- EM1 get 64.5% of net revenue (what is reduced from gross revenue to decide net revenue??), so ~~$76,516 USD per month (minus affects of "net revenue")
Let's paint an optimistic picture:
- 6279 subscribers. Let's assume half of these are from the first 125,000 invites sent prior to Nov 28th. Uptake of ~2.5116%
- Let's assume that all things considered, the pre-reg actually got 11mil individuals to be targeted
- Let's assume that the uptake of the remaining invites is only 50% of the uptake estimated above (whether or not this is optimistic or pessimistic is impossible to say, IMHO; very speculative).
- So thats (11,000,000 - 125,000) * (0.025116 * 0.5) + 6279 ~~ 142,847 total subscribers from the pre-regs.
- Assume $8.50 USD per month, * 0.8 for package discounts * 0.8 for C1 discounts * 0.645 for EM1 share ~~$501,221 USD per month.(minus affects of "net revenue")
So... Have I gone pessimistic enough? Have I gone optimistic enough? Will the truth be somewhere in-between my two markers?
Other things to be pessimistic or optimistic about:
- How long will it take TIM/C1 to invite the remaining of all the pre-regs?
- How many of the subscribers will continue their subscription?
- How many subscribers will Miggster get over the next 6-12 months that are not part of the initial pre-regs group?
Even more extended things to be pessimistic or optimistic about:
- Will Emerge Gaming make more go-to-market partnerships with other companies, in other countries, and make further profits separate to Miggster?
- How is MTN Arena doing?
- Are they going to make more and better games for their platform?
My [current] opinion:
- Seems reasonable that they will get their target of 100,000 subscriptions within 6 months of November 14th 2020.
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