~~ ALL OPINIONS with assumptions & speculation, DYOR ~~ Let's paint a pessimistic picture:
6279 subscribers from 925,000 invites = 0.67881% uptake
Let's assume that all things considered, only half of the 11m pre-regs are real individuals (so that's a total of only 5,500,000 invites)
Let's assume that the uptake rate for the remaining invites is only 50% of current uptake rate (whether or not this is optimistic or pessimistic is impossible to say, IMHO; very speculative).
With above assumptions: that's 6,279 from the fist 925,000 invites, and ~15527 from the remaining 4,575,000 invites; so total of ~~21,807 subscribers from the pre-regs.
[what is the price of the different subscription packages? All I know is that the monthly is $8.50USD]??
Let's assume an average discount of 20% from packages purchased, and an average discount of 20% from C1 incentives and from free memberships given away due to pre-reg incentives. That would leave us with the revenue of the subscribers * ~64%, ~~$118,630 USD per month.
EM1 get 64.5% of net revenue (what is reduced from gross revenue to decide net revenue??), so ~~$76,516 USD per month (minus affects of "net revenue")
Let's paint an optimistic picture:
6279 subscribers. Let's assume half of these are from the first 125,000 invites sent prior to Nov 28th. Uptake of ~2.5116%
Let's assume that all things considered, the pre-reg actually got 11mil individuals to be targeted
Let's assume that the uptake of the remaining invites is only 50% of the uptake estimated above (whether or not this is optimistic or pessimistic is impossible to say, IMHO; very speculative).
So thats (11,000,000 - 125,000) * (0.025116 * 0.5) + 6279 ~~ 142,847 total subscribers from the pre-regs.
Assume $8.50 USD per month, * 0.8 for package discounts * 0.8 for C1 discounts * 0.645 for EM1 share ~~$501,221 USD per month.(minus affects of "net revenue")
So... Have I gone pessimistic enough? Have I gone optimistic enough? Will the truth be somewhere in-between my two markers?
Other things to be pessimistic or optimistic about:
How long will it take TIM/C1 to invite the remaining of all the pre-regs?
How many of the subscribers will continue their subscription?
How many subscribers will Miggster get over the next 6-12 months that are not part of the initial pre-regs group?
Even more extended things to be pessimistic or optimistic about:
Will Emerge Gaming make more go-to-market partnerships with other companies, in other countries, and make further profits separate to Miggster?
How is MTN Arena doing?
Are they going to make more and better games for their platform?
My [current] opinion:
Seems reasonable that they will get their target of 100,000 subscriptions within 6 months of November 14th 2020.
EM1 Price at posting:
10.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
